Tuesday, February 28, 2006
One Paycheck Away from the Street
More polls than Krakov
The first set of primaries are but a week away. It almost makes me feel as I did as a boy when the "Boys of Summer" took the field for the first time each year. Being a die-hard Chicago Cubs fan, I am used to hearing the phrase, "hope springs eternal." With election season nipping at our heels, these numbers begin to take on new meaning. Unless otherwise indicated, all polls are conducted by Rasmussen Reprts, 500 respondents, have an MoE of +/- 4.5%, and applicable trend lines in parentheses.
Oregon Governor
Ted Kulongoski (D): 51%
Kevin Mannix (R): 36%
Ted Kulongoski (D): 47%
Ron Saxton (R): 33%
Ted Kulongoski (D): 48%
Jason Atkinson (R): 36%
This is terrific news, as the incumbent governor has struggled somewhat in some of the 50 state polling on governor popularity across the country.
Alabama Governor
Bob Riley (R): 53%
Lucy Baxley (D): 37%
Roy Moore (R): 44%
Lucy Baxley (D): 46%
Illinois Governor
Rod Blagojevich (D): 42% (37)
Judy Baar Topinka (R): 36% (48)
Rod Blagojevich (D): 49% (43)
Jim Oberweis (R): 37% (39)
Rod Blagojevich (D): 47% (40)
Ron Gidwitz (R): 33% (40)
As you can see by the HUGE gains Governor Blagojevich has made over the past few weeks, I'm guessing that something was seriously amiss with the last set of numbers Rasmussen released on this race. Of couse, it could have something to do with a biting Republican primary.
West Virginia U.S. Senate
Robert Byrd (D): 58%
John Raese (R): 32%
Robert Byrd (D): 60%
Hiram Lewis (R): 29%
Robert Byrd (D): 61%
Zane Lawhorn (R): 28%
This ... is terrific news. For months we heard from Senator Elizabeth Dole that West Virginia would be a state with a bullseye on it in 2006. But, much like the poor job she did recruiting in multiple states across the country (See Nebraska/Florida), the GOP is left-with third teir candidates that potentially make this race close only because of their ability to self-finance. Doesn't matter, Senator Byrd is extemely popular and looks to be well on his way to a walk in November.
Colorado Governor
Bill Ritter (D): 40%
Bob Beauprez (R): 33%
Bill Ritter (D) 41%
Marc Holtzman (R): 28%
Gary Lidstrom (D): 36%
Bob Beauprez (R): 37%
Gary Lidstrom (D): 35%
Marc Holtzman (R): 33%
I saved the best for last on this set of numbers. Now that Mayor Hickenlooper (D) has decided to sit out the race, the numbers for the Democratic candidates have surged. I say the best for last because Beauprez is absolutely shameless and insufferable. It was only earlier this month he was parading around the campaign trail in full military flight regalia despite requesting, and receiving, three deferments during the Vietnam war. What's worse, Beauprez has the worst voting record in Congress on military issues according to the Disabled American Veterans.
The New York Times ran a nice piece late last week providing a decent snapshot of where we stand as of right now in gubernatorial contests across the country.
At a time when considerable political attention is focused on the Democrats' uphill struggle to recapture Congress, leaders of both parties say Democrats appear to be in a much stronger position on another pivotal battlefield this November, the contests for governors.Democrats have a strong chance to pick up a number of seats held by Republicans while keeping seats even in states that President Bush won in 2004, potentially allowing Democrats to put their view of government on display across a bigger swath of the country and strengthening their position for the 2008 presidential race, party officials said.
Among the states that could flip to the Democratic column are Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Ohio, all general election battlegrounds carried by Mr. Bush, as well as New York and perhaps California.
Play Ball!
Monday, February 27, 2006
Another radio station departs
A farewell message to WJDA - The Boston Globe: "It's all part of a process that starts when the station is sold. The old owner departs, and the new owner takes over. People who worked there for years lose their jobs. Perhaps a small group of fans who liked the old station will try to save it. They'll write letters and sign petitions. But the FCC won't step in, and the changes will proceed, whether the public approves or not. And for those who loved the old station and can't understand why it's gone, there is a genuine feeling of loss."
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Donna L. Halper is a radio consultant and media historian. She teaches at Emerson College and is the author of three books and many articles about broadcasting.
While I can't speak for Donna Halper or her method, consultants spent a generation pandering to radio station owners and managers who were alarmed at the popularity of disc jockeys. While they were happy that these local personalities accounted for strong ratings, the consultants convinced them that it was possible to achieve ratings success while downplaying the prominence of the disc jockeys. More music and less talk became the consultant's mantra and it fell on receptive ears. Radio station management and owners muzzled their disc jockeys and told them what to say, how to say it and when to say it. They did research and focus studies that confirmed that listeners wanted to hear more music and less talk and they didn't want disc jockeys talking over their favorite songs. Eureka!! Success!! Stations could have their cake and eat it too. If they could attract more listeners without having to pay for seasoned pros, then that was the route for them. And for a while, the concept worked. Every new format or change will attract new listeners for a period of time, but the listeners quickly grew tired of the boring repetition of the same "proven" songs. But the concept was an easy sell. After all, the consultant's goal was to produce a radio station that played the most and best music, and in their business plan, that would be the formula for success. While they pushed the more music and less talk formula, they discovered, oddly enough, that the stations that still talked over your favorite songs, were the ones doing well, at least for the time being. Now that anybody with an MP3 player and a connection to the internet can be their own more music station, with NO interruptions, the purpose of the consultant crafted radio station has been all but eliminated. What happened when the only reason for listening to a station became just the music? It's like when your new car gets dinged in the parking lot of Target by the person in the next space. Your reaction is going to be a lot different to the careless driver if he's a stranger than if he were a friend or neighbor. When consultants convinced radio stations that the disc jockey was a necessary evil, instead of a companion, a friend or just a human being, they set the stage for what's turned into today's dull and stale radio. And even if they wanted to go back to the old formula for success, where are they going to find the right people, at any price? All the good ones are either dead or selling real estate.
It's a no passion all repeat Tuesday
For Jonathan Marks, the state of traditional radio is summed up in a despairing T-shirt slogan colored in neon pink and black: "Something's wrong with my radio It plays the same five songs over and over. "Long ago, he stopped tuning in commercial music stations in his native Netherlands because of general fatigue with prerecorded loops of songs that are as familiar as Christmas carols. "No wonder people are looking for alternatives to machine-playing radio," said Marks, a former Radio Netherlands producer who is now a media consultant there. "No passion. Just repeats." One hundred years after the first crackly broadcast of a human voice from Brant Rock, Massachusetts, to a shipboard wireless operator, the once staid and mature industry of radio is facing severe competition and major technological and structural changes to a business model established in the 1920s and 1930s. Strangely enough, though, it is the public broadcasters, like the British Broadcasting Corp., Radio France Internationale, Deutsche Welle or National Public Radio in the United States, that are flourishing by embracing new technology and strategies, while commercial radio operators are losing out to iPods, MP3 players and digital and satellite alternatives. In Britain, the BBC has increased its market share to 55.1 percent, according to surveys, taking its lead over commercial radio to its widest point in three years. The same trends are taking hold in the Netherlands and in Germany. Youth-oriented commercial rock stations - once a standard teenage emblem of identity and rebellion - are facing a revolt themselves. In France, where three rock stations lost a total of about one million listeners in surveys in the last quarter of 2005, L'Actu, a youth newspaper, published a front-page article in January about falling audience levels with a cartoon of tearful radio executives clutching the wayward heels of a listener with dangling ear buds. Youthful disaffection has had an effect in the United States, too. In New York in January, Infinity Broadcasting transformed K-Rock from an alternative rock format to talk radio, saying the station had been losing too many listeners to music downloads and Internet radio. It is trends like these that have convinced media analysts at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, the consulting firm, that the days of radio as a single broadcast product are ending and that stations will have to adapt to the digital world and alternative forms of distribution to reach a dispersed audience. "Historically, the commercial stations were focused on essentially music stations and a limited number of genres and songs and artists, because that was the way to get the advertising dollar," said Ed Shedd, a media partner with Deloitte in London. "The converging world really suits talk and chat and discussion, and that really plays into the hand of the public-service broadcasters that are more invested in talk services." The solution, Shedd said, is to sharpen strategies because "if you've got a tired old format, people run away from you in droves." Most commercial stations are already offering their programming on the Web in the form of audio "streaming," and some, like Clear Channel, the top U.S. radio station operator, have reduced advertising. Under its "less is more" policy, designed to address listener complaints about commercial clutter, Clear Channel is reducing advertising by an average of 20 percent across all its stations and increasing advertising rates. But public broadcasters are moving more boldly to increase their engagement with listeners - or "customers," as the broadcasters now often call them - in unlikely ways. Late last December, the public broadcaster Radio France Internationale revamped its news Web site, which includes podcasts and streaming. Podcasting allows listeners to subscribe to radio shows, with their music players downloading the latest episodes from the computer. Computer users without portable players can "stream" a specific program to their computer speakers. RFI offered a new bilingual crime serial on the adventures of a British journalist who awakens in a Paris hotel with a headache, breakfast and a parcel containing €20,000, or $23,700. RFI also created Web sites aimed at people learning French as a second language with slow-speed newscasts and archived items like Victor Hugo on the death penalty or Sidonie Gabrielle Colette's affectionate letters to her daughter. One site is aimed at French students, with exercises and quizzes, while another focuses on teachers, with current-events lessons and guides. "I love having these articles and exercises available," said Nikki McDonald, a high school French teacher at Duchesne Academy in Omaha, Nebraska, who added, "working with the transcripts improves their reading comprehension as well as their sense of French syntax. And as I am not a native speaker, listening to the broadcasts gives them a chance to hear accents other than mine." The new Web site for language training was a revelation for RFI, which plans to develop it further. Most visitors to their standard news site come from French-speaking countries, said Mathilde Landier, who is part of the team creating the new language learning site. That site is drawing in visitors from a new set of countries like the United States, Spain, China and Japan. "This made RFI realize that the French language-learning Web site was quite important," she said, because it is a "gate for new visitors." Radio Netherlands, a public international broadcaster with roots that date to 1947, is also seeking ways to engage with its broad audience, estimated at a weekly average of 30 million to 50 million, according to its director general, Jan Hoek, who expects the number of users to rise. "Nowadays what we do is being consumed not only through audio devices but consumed through the Internet and mobile devices, so that the word 'radio' is basically becoming outdated," Hoek said. In September, Radio Netherlands started a radio program aimed entirely at truck drivers, who can pick up the two-hour "On the Road" show throughout Europe in a variety of forms, from traditional radio to online streaming. Today, the giant of international broadcasting remains the BBC World Service, with a total audience that grew to an average of 149 million a week last year, up from 146 million a year earlier. But the nomenclature is changing for the BBC too. In his public statements, Nigel Chapman, BBC World Service director, describes a transformation of a "short wave radio broadcaster into a leading international multimedia network." Within Britain, the BBC has established a distinctive style, with live concerts and broadcasting of new music and unsigned bands. "Public broadcasters can have an advantage, as they can experiment and gain experience with new technology without the same financial constraints as commercial broadcasters," said Colin Donald, editor of Live Net Music, which tracks and lists the times when independent rock bands perform live through online radio. Just this month, the BBC stepped up its podcasting program to 50 shows for a trial period through the summer of 2006. But one of the issues is that this new media category remains elusive to quantify since podcasts may be downloaded but never listened to, particularly when people automatically "subscribe" to them. The BBC does not know how many people really listen to what is automatically downloaded, and it is not clear to the "multimedia" caster whether podcasts will turn into a commercial activity or will remain a giveaway. For Marks, the radio gadfly, podcasts are a form of a conversation that engage listeners. "The best type of radio," he said, "is one that shares emotions."
Sunday, February 26, 2006
'Old' radio fights satellite with HD as its weapon
Would you pay $150 for a high definition radio receiver to receive better audio quality? Would you pay $150 for a special receiver to get satellite radio and then pay a monthly subscription fee on top of that? Old school radio is betting that you'll buy the HD receiver in order to get their programming. It's their answer to MP3 player and satellite radio. But right now, there are only a couple of HD manufacturers and brodcasters are trying to avoid the fiasco of AM stereo, where there were competing and no compatible receivers. This time they seem to have their act together on standardized receivers, but will listeners shell out that kind of money to hear the morning zoo or a better variety so you can listen longer?
An estimated 100,000 HD radios are in use nationwide - a mere blip compared with upwards of 500 million conventional radios. Like the guy down the block who bought a VCR in 1974, only true "early adopters" would even consider an HD radio now.
Saturday, February 25, 2006
9/11 Commission Chair Speaks Out Against Port Deal
Thomas Kean, a former Republican governor of New Jersey who led the bipartisan probe of the Sept. 11 attacks, said the deal was a big mistake because of past connections between the 2001 hijackers and the UAE."It shouldn't have happened, it never should have happened," Kean said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press.
The quicker the Bush administration can get out of the deal, the better, he said. "There's no question that two of the 9/11 hijackers came from there and money was laundered through there," Kean said.
Also of note in the article, President Bush says he refuses to reconsider the deal that places corporate interests ahead of national security ... again. The president has said before that he wasn't "all that concerned" with Osama bin Laden, but now it's becoming clear that he isn't all that concerned with national security in total. You might remember the last time the Chairman of the 9/11 Commission was forced to speak out on the president's national security creds. "It's not a priority for the government. A lot of things we need to do to prevent another 9/11 just simply aren't being done by the president or by the Congress." In fact, the commission found the president and his rubber stamp Republican Congress' were a collective failure in protecting the country -- giving them 1 A (and it was an A-), out of 41 categories in a post-9/11 progress report.
*Thomas Kean Sr. should not to be confused with Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in New Jersey, Thomas Kean Jr. (as much as Jr. would like you to)
